Aviation Market in 2026: Measured Steps Instead of Foolish “Expansion”
The year 2025 turned out to be one of the most difficult for aviation as a whole. One can talk endlessly about the heavy legacy of the post-COVID era, which manifested itself in a global disruption of supply chains and, as a consequence, a shortage of new aircraft and spare parts, delays in maintenance, and so on. Added to this were geopolitical risks—at times it seems the whole world wants to fight more than to create. We are living through a turning point, where the old world order has already been completely destroyed, while the new one has not yet taken on any clear shape. Aviation, in this process, is a litmus test reflecting all of these dynamics.
But how are companies in the aviation sector responding to today’s challenges? Sometimes it feels as if they prefer not to notice what is happening around them at all, trying to convince everyone—and first and foremost themselves—that the old methods of planning and running a business can still work. Just be sensitive enough to short-term market conditions and keep your nose to the wind.
EXPANSION… We heard this word in almost every second press release or aviation media story. In 2025, companies expanded their fleets, routes, and flight frequencies—and in the end… a wave of airline bankruptcies swept through the aviation market toward the end of the year.
“But you were just telling us how great everything was going for you! How did this happen?”
“Well… it just happened…”
All those messages about “expansion” in the aviation market sounded like a mantra for self-hypnosis: “I won’t mess this up, I won’t mess this up…,” ending with: “Oops, I messed it up.”
It is enough to look at the single case of SmartLynx, which showed growing profits on paper year after year, yet ultimately went bankrupt with debts of at least €238 million. And suddenly SmartLynx’s management began saying that the company had been in a severe crisis for a long time, which they were unable to overcome solely “because of misleading media reports.”
Yet no one wants to acknowledge another global reason behind most aviation bankruptcies in recent years: there are simply TOO MANY companies. Far more than the market can realistically absorb. Let’s be honest—there is no real need for such a number of operators, MRO companies, flight-support providers, and so on. Most new companies over the past decade were born through “splitting.” Some manager would leave an old company, find investors, and start a new one, taking “their” clients along. Then they would dive headfirst into an ocean of insane competition, dumping prices to absurd levels just to grab a few more customers. And that’s it. No added value, no real product innovation—just cut-throat competition and the desire to be your own boss and control the money.
A natural consequence of this uncontrolled “mass spawning” of aviation companies is that there are simply not enough competent and experienced top managers. As a result, many companies—even large ones—are often run either by outright idiots or by crooks.
As a result, the aviation market has begun to resemble the gold-rush market of the early 20th century: absolutely wild and devoid of any ethics. Everyone for themselves, ready to tear out anyone’s throat so theirs isn’t torn out first. Perhaps, in that case, the works of Jack London are more relevant to this market than business literature. Under current market conditions, all those business theories seem increasingly detached from reality, while issues of psychology—and even psychiatry—feel ever closer to the real state of affairs in aviation.
I am not saying all this to remain a detached accuser diagnosing the modern aviation market. First and foremost, I want to warn you against being naïve in the face of loud statements about “expansion” anywhere in the aviation industry. At best, this is self-deception on the part of those making such claims. At worst, it is a deliberate attempt to mislead counterparties in order to conceal the true state of affairs. Try to stay away from any such company. Otherwise, you will eventually realize that all these “expansions” are happening at your expense—and often at the cost of bankrupting your own companies, which have become hostages to business relationships with these so-called “gold diggers.” Over the past year, we have repeatedly witnessed honest companies falling victim to such adventurers.
Most of you know very well that sometimes a single wrong decision—or even one not-so-terrible incident (such as an aircraft breaking down)—can trigger a chain of events leading a company to financial disaster. If you add up all the risks, any realist will tell you that the chances of rapid growth without becoming insolvent today are about 0.1%.
Even large aviation companies with 50-year histories are not trying to present themselves as conquerors of the world right now. They know perfectly well that attempting any kind of “expansion” in these turbulent times is like marching through a minefield.
Therefore, my wish to all aviators for 2026 is this: only smart, well-considered steps—steps that will inspire confidence in your partners and in yourselves.
Artem Degtiarov, Chief editor at BLACKLIST.AERO
Creditors of SmartLynx Unite Under the Auspices of BLACKLIST.AERO
A criminal investigation has been opened into suspected fraud involving the management of SIA Smartlynx Airlines and the alleged fictitious sale of the airline to a new owner. BLACKLIST.AERO learned this information from a source familiar with the investigation. The case was initiated after a complaint was filed with the police by one of the creditors. It is also possible that additional complaints have been submitted by other defrauded counterparties of Smartlynx.
Over the past week, investment analysts from companies holding Avia Solutions Group (ASG) bonds have contacted me twice, asking for a more detailed explanation of the SmartLynx bankruptcy. Their biggest concern is that the same situation could repeat with other companies within the ASG holding.
The covert bankruptcy—legally framed as a “restructuring”—of SIA SmartLynx Airlines (Latvia), along with the highly probable collapse of SmartLynx Malta and SmartLynx Estonia in the near future, has become more than just a landmark event for the aviation market. Its consequences may amount to a full-fledged default tsunami, triggering a cascade of multimillion-euro non-payments across the industry.
